Sorry but that's a deeply flawed analysis.
There are quite a number of respected historians of the disaster who have studied all this in much more detail than you or I ever have and who do not believe that Charles Joughin was drunk. It was exaggerated by the newspapers and set into popular imagination by the films.
Joughin's testimony has several problems but you ignore the fact that a great many people who were still on the ship or in the lifeboats gave testimony that was just as, indeed if not more confusing or contradictory than Joughin's.
IF he were less than sober, he could have mistaken the stern's second rising (fully lighted, very steep, with people falling) for a port list supposedly 'chucking' people. He says he didn't think that the ship ever got to any kind of steep angle, but there are plenty of reliable (read: unimpaired) people who saw very steep angles. Ever considered what he was caught up in ?
It was an extremely frightening, tense situation where his life was in danger, he spent time swimming in water that was below freezing and had to spent a couple of hours shivering atop Collapsible B before Boat 12 took them off and reached the
Carpathia. He wasn't exactly taking notes as it went on.
Having been through all that, It's highly understandable that he may have become confused about what he saw, heard and felt. So were many dozens of other survivors in the same situation.
Although he tried to speak authoritatively, he was wrong about things. That's not really a good argument when the exact same goes for Lawrence Beesley, Charles Lightoller, Joseph Boxhall, Archibald Gracie, George Rowe, Harold Bride..... the list goes on and on. It even goes for Captain Arthur Rostron of the
Carpathia.
It's extremely likely that he had more to drink than he let on. The first time he spoke of going to his room for a drink, he said he "had a drop". When pressed later, he said he had "half a tumbler". He admits to having had one glass of the old uisge-beatha, so what ? Mix it with water ("a hot toddy" - mixing it with hot water on a freezing cold night was popular then) and you do indeed have "half a tumbler" or thereabouts.
So, knowing that he went to the pantry on Deck A, right at the 3rd funnel, and right adjacent to the 1st-class lounge's bar, does anyone believe that he went to that spot for "a drink of water"? Circumstantial. Proves nothing.
I think that he ran out of spirits in his room, and went to tank up by getting into the bar. What you or I or anyone else
think happened is completely irrelevant.
It's what the written evidence and the fast decaying evidence on the seabed tells us what happened that is relevant. There is not the slightest evidence that Joughin ever set foot in the first class bar.
That would explain how he got things muddled in his testimony. What explains it is that a human being was in an extraordinary life threatening situation and was frightened, confused and realising that in the coming minutes he would be now engaged in a terrifying fight for his very life.
Charles Joughin (who had a wife and two children at home in Southampton who were dependent on him) now had to work out just how the hell to survive this mess rather than pausing to accurately note every blessed thing that was happening around him.
You must also consider that giving evidence at both the inquiries with all the officials, the press and the morbid public all looking on must have been an unpleasant experience. With such pressure upon one, it's understandable that things may have slipped his mind or he didn't express himself too well.
How did Charles Lightoller, Harold Bride, George Rowe and Joseph Boxhall and many other men and women offer problematic, objectionable accounts of what happened to them ? Were they all drunk too ?
And if you want to bet that half a tumbler of alcohol consumed nearly an hour before the ship sank was what saved him, I'll take that bet, and wager on him having drunk a lot more than that. Why would you take a bet on something that's impossible to ever prove ? That's ridiculous.
We don't know if he had half a tumbler of water, half a tumbler of alcohol (which would likely have rendered him paralytic) or a half tumbler mixed with alcohol and water. It's quite clear he was not drunk though.
The whole idea that Joughin survived because the alcohol kept him warm is just another myth of the sinking. Had he been as hammered as public imagination wrongly thinks he was, it's likely he would have died quite quickly in the water, there is an old thread on here that explains it.
Joughin was sober as he left the ship and swam to the temporary safety of Collapsible B. It's time the lazy myth of "the drunk baker" was scuttled for good.