Horizons

[Senan Molony]

Not much comment necessary here, just a bit of time studying the illustration underneath.

Your horizon depends on your height, also taking into account such marginal issues as atmosphere, refraction and the curvature of the earth.

The people at Titanic International Society put this graphic together fifteen years ago. They have previously allowed it to be reproduced, and I hope it will prove instructive here.

It shows the visible distance for Californian and Titanic lookouts.

It also conforms to an age-old formula, very well known to mariners and indeed more widely, although the Titanic circle looks a little off centre to me.

Titanic did not have the height of even modern passenger ferries or cruise ships - it was long where they are squat.

This graphic demonstrates the position very well, and we remember naturally that the Titanic and Californian both had very visible ships well within their horizons.

Perfectly simple. Rational. Beyond obscurantist insistence that the Californian must be the Titanic's mystery ship. {Because we WANT her to be...]

This is the position I always try to draw on pub tables for Inger Sheil with various bits of beermat, which is generally a folly given our inevitable circumstances at that hour of the night when talk finally comes around to the Mystery Ship.

 

[Paul Lee]

It also assumes that the two ships remained 21 miles apart. A lower distance, such as 15 miles that I and others have advocated, would put them within visible range of each other.

By the way, perhaps other can confirm this: I didn't think the Californian's bridge height was 49 feet above sea level.

 

[Senan Molony]

No Paul,

Because if you claim that the Californian is the Titanic's Mystery Ship and that she (Titanic)is the ship seen by the Californian -

Then Titanic MUST be within Californian's visible horizon, which as Samuel has pointed out is 7.8 nautical miles.

At 15 miles, not only will Californian not see anything, but neither will Titanic see anything as her visible horizon is less than ten miles as demonstrated above.

Full stop.

Furthermore, if you managed to freeze all the sea around the Titanic, invert her prow in the ice so that she stands on end (as in her advertising) and if you sit up there on the word "Liverpool," 882 and a half feet high, any ship you see at 15 miles will be just a gleam.

It will not have the masts, red sidelight, and "beautiful lights" stated in evidence to have been seen by Boxhall.

If you want to get Titanic closer to Californian, you have to construct a scenario how that happens.

Titanic sank south of the New York track.
Proof on the sea bed.

Californian stayed north of the 42nd parallel.
Agreed by all on board. No-one says she went south. Groves, who thought afterwards the ship he saw pre-midnight was, in retrospect, the Titanic, agreed with his Captain's stop position.

Everything about Californian's course is perfectly clear, from the pre-accident wireless messages of her position, to the trio of icebergs she saw (whose presence was independently confirmed) and which Californian could not have seen had she been off course.

I am sorry to disappoint you, but the scientific fact is that anything 15 miles away from either the Titanic or the Californian is utterly hull down.

Neither of the ships seen by those two vessels were hull down. Sidelights remember.

 

[Paul Lee]

Talking about science:
Learn some physics. Take a look at Allard's law. This will tell you how far a light source can be seen for a given power output.

By the way, to find the total observable distance from a ship at a certain height, you need to add the distances together. If the Californian and the Titanic were in view of each pther, the total distrance is 7.8 + 9.5 nm.

I checked this in a 1970s copy of Lloyd's Calendar, so this is right. You ADD the distances together.

 

[Paul Lee]

Just to clarify, the distances quoted in that sketch above refer to the HORIZON. If there is something beyond the horizon, and it is of sufficient height, it can still be seen; lighthouses for instance.

You can use the values quoted in a table in Lloyd's Calender, or use the expression
distance to horizon in nautical miles = 1.14 * square root ( height of observer in feet)

 

[Paul Lee]

Just knocked up this quick sketch.

So, according to you, in the sketch "Me" can't see "Mr.Big" winking at him and waving?

 

[Senan Molony]

Hi Paul,

Love the clarion call to learn physics! And now I can't wait for the time when abnormal meteorological conditions to manifest themselves.

The basic rule is:

1.17 times the square root of your height of eye = Distance to the horizon in nautical miles.

It is true that if you want to calculate the distance at which an object becomes visible, you must know your height of eye and the height of the other object. You then add the distances together.

But you ASSUME, once again, that Titanic and Californian are seeing each other, cannibalising the Titanic's greater height, as it were.

Whereas Californian witnesses only saw a "small to medium steamer" 4-7 miles away. Your problem, not mine.

Meanwhile fifteen miles is still fifteen miles!

You will only see a gleam.

You will not see a hull.

You will not see sidelights.

You will not see masts.

You will not see "beautiful lights" or, as Boxhall said later, "brightly shining portholes."

And he said this on more than one occasion.

You, in adding the distances together, are again assuming that the Californian must have been seeing the Titanic, when the gap is unclosable.

Maybe you would agree that the Deputy Chief Inspector of the Marine Accident Investigation Branch would be well qualified to pronounce on such matters.

"Titanic's speed, maintained until collision at 11.40pom, suggests that if at the time she was five miles from the Californian, then at 11pm she will be nearly 20 miles away, which is a very long way away for her to be seen," he writes in the MAIB report.

That's based on Groves seeing the light at 11pm. Captain Lord saw the light which resolved itself into "something like ourselves" at 10.30pm, a fact the DIC overlooked. And he saw it from the deck *below* the bridge.

Applying Lord Mersey's stopped distance of 8-10 miles, plus the application to that light of Titanic's speed (since you say it is Titanic) means Captain Lord would have been seeing the alleged-Titanic at 32 miles.

This is nearly four times the Californian's visible horizon, even for the loom of a light, rather than a hull.

The Deputy Chief Inspector adds:

"It is in my view inconceivable that Californian or any other ship was within the visible horizon of Titanic during that period; it equally follows that Titanic cannot have been within Californian's horizon."

I presume he knows his physics. We are not talking about Star Trek, a series not known for adhering to physical laws.

Californian's bridge height, from plans, was 45ft, not 49' by the way, and I admit that box in the diagram is rather obscure.

I would say to you, learn the Titanic evidence.
Boxhall, unlike us, was there. He was the man tasked by Captain Smith with attracting the attention of that vessel.

He had height, he had time, he had glasses. And he saw her approach (Californian stationary), saw her turn to present a port light, and says she "probably" got into the ice.

And she says she was five miles.

Do you, a man born in the very latter part of the last century, one of little nautical experience, not there in 1912, say that Boxhall must be wrong?

I stand by the Titanic evidence. You appear to be fifteen miles away.

 

[Paul Lee]

I do know the evidence thank you.

And by the way, if you are talking about science, don't lecture me. I have a PhD in physics and they don't award those to thickos.

Alright, Titanic's sidelights were 60 feet above the waterline, and Californian's were, by your figures 49.

Total distance = 1.14*( sqrt(60) + sqrt(49) )

Now, say you were on the Titanic,with your line of sight 6 feet above the boat deck. Thats 66 feet if you can't do the maths. How far above the waterline, over the horizon could you see.

Well, total distance = D, which I shall say is 15 miles

D = 1.14*(sqrt(66) + sqrt (h))
where h is how much of the other ship above the waterline, you would see, and hence over the horizon. Lets plug the numbers in and do a bit of algebra.

((15/1.14) - sqrt(66))^2 = 25 feet.
Thus, anything 25 feet above the waterline can be seen. Since a lot of the hull, superstructure, side lights, mast lights, engine room skylight etc. are well above this, they can be seen.

Lets see how far the two ships have to be for the Titanic NOT to see the Californian's sidelight:
D=1.14*(sqrt(66)+sqrt(49))
= 17.2 miles

 

[Bill Wormstedt]

Let's talk facts.

The position of the wreck is a known fact. The position that the Titanic gave in the wireless distress call is a fact.

The position of the Californian is NOT a fact. It is the position that Lord and the officers gave at the Inquiries, true. But that does not guarantee that the position is absolutely correct. A mistake may have been made, as Boxhall may have made calculating the Titanic's position that night.

An assumption about one point of a triangle proves nothing about distances or angles.

 

[Encyclopedia Titanica]

Right, maybe we can bring this to an amicable conclusion and I mean a conclusion.

Everyone is on notice to keep this discussion at a friendly level and that includes not winding each other (or me) up.

 

[Senan Molony]

Hi Phil,

I think I will need about four posts to wrap up the claim that the Californian was Titanic's Mystery Ship seen at a distance of 15 miles.

First, we have seen how this claim contradicts both Officer Boxhall, the prime witness, and Captain Smith.

It also contradicts the other officers:

Estimates by Titanic officers:

Second Officer Charles Herbert Lightoller:
14140- Certainly not over 5 miles away.

Third Officer Herbert Pitman
15062.- I thought it was about five miles.
(in Ryan v OSNC, 1913, offered 2 miles)



Fifth Officer Harold Lowe: 15825 …I glanced over in that direction casually and I saw a steamer there.
15826. What did you see of her? –I saw her two masthead and her red side lights.
(implying closeness because sidelights had to be seen a regulation two miles)

And not only all the surviving Titanic officers, above, but crew members thought the same. A representative sample:

Four Quartermasters!

QM Walter Wynn: 13340. - About seven or eight miles.
QM Arthur John Bright (US p.836): possibly four or five miles away.
QM George Rowe: 17659. - Four or five miles.
QM Robert Hichens: 1162 - about five miles away.

Three Able Seamen!

AB George Moore: (US p.564): -- Two or three miles away, I should judge.
AB Edward Buley: (US p.611): I should judge she was about three miles.
AB John Poingdexter: 3089 - A matter of four or five miles.
[AB Thomas Jones, former lookout, ordered by Smith to pull for the light. No distance offered.]

A lookout!

Lookout Reginald Lee: 2719- five or six miles.

Fleet offers no miles, but could see the light from the lifeboat and said she was “getting away off.”
Other lookouts were not asked.

I could go on with firemen, cooks, stewards, scullions, but there are all the main
deck personnel above who testified to the point.

All trained observers of lights at sea.

On a point of information:

Paul's use of 1.14 as a factor in determining nautical horizon is not being fair to his own argument.

He appears to be using a formula for an astronomical horizon (involving planets) rather than one confined to this sphere.

The correct factor should be 1.17 at sea, as nautical lecturer Samuel Halpern has indicated.

This 1.17 will give you extra distance, Paul, and I want you to have every advantage. Because I will be making use of this formula later.

In relation to Californian, it can be demonstrated like this:

Californian bridge height 45ft. The formula uses the square root of this figure to multiply against 1.17.

The square root of 45 is 6.7.

6.7 multiplied by 1.17 is 7.8 nautical miles. Which is Californian’s visible horizon as Samuel Halpern correctly pointed out in the last thread.

The audience will remember that I did not disagree with him on this point.

If you use 1.14 you only get 7.6.

Regards - Senan

 

[Paul Rogers]

I tried to post this yesterday, but missed out by a matter of minutes when Phil closed the discussion! Anyway, I wanted to bring up the issue re: burden of proof.

It is a known fact that Titanic and Californian were sufficiently close enough to each other so that the latter saw at least the former's socket signals, if not their navigation lights as well. Senan, you are arguing that there was not one, but two, other "mystery ships" also in the vicinity. As there is no formal or tangible evidence extant for the presence of these mystery ships the burden of proof falls on you in this regard.

To satisfy this burden of proof (at least to my satisfaction) you would have to address two key points:

1. What are the two (or more) likely candidates for the role of mystery ships and what evidence do you have that they were in the vicinity of Titanic and Californian? You will recall that I have asked you this question twice before on the "Middle Watch" thread, and did not receive a answer.

2. Human nature being what it is, I would have expected at least one deathbed confession from a crew member of these mystery ships - or at the very least, a relative coming forward with a story about their family's "hidden secret." After all, there are some ships almost vying for the "honour" of being a mystery ship (e.g. Samson) when they could not possibly have actually been present at the time. So how do you account for the silence of these crewmen? Did both ships sink shortly thereafter?

I'll leave the mathematical arguments to those best equipped to discuss them. I can barely balance my cheque book!

 

[Senan Molony]

Paul R,

You will forgive me for not pursuing stragglers into the forest. I am embarked on shattering the notion that the Californian was the Titanic's Mystery Ship.

Let me get finish with this central issue, and the argument advanced that the Mystery Ship was Californian and was 15 miles away - with no other distractions.

Some time ago I asked for someone — anyone - to advance me a single good reason why the ship seen by the Titanic MUST be the Californian.

No-one has done so. Bill would like Californian to be the Mystery Ship, but he can't provide evidence to get the Californian to the south. And south she must go in this scenario, because the Titanic position is now locked in.

Leaving aside the fact that no-one on the Californian says she went south, it is her evidence (not disputed by anyone on board) that she did not begin to move until 6am — shortly after getting the shocking news by wireless that Titanic had transmitted an SOS.

So, folks, go back to the shaded circles at the top of this thread.

Say you choose to believe that all on board the Californian were lying (including the ‘whistleblowers,’ unfortunately) and that she was in reality much closer to the Titanic than the 21 miles shown above.

Say you conclude that the Titanic witnesses are uniformly "mistaken" about the proximity of their Mystery Ship - as demonstrated above.

[And I await Paul Lee citing a single Titanic witness who says the Mystery Ship was 15 miles away, or even 14 miles, Samuel...]

Go ahead and ignore this background. Pull the Californian down a few squares from where she is in the graphic at the top of this thread…

Because fresh problems will be created!

Mount Temple says she arrived at the SOS position at 4.30am, but could see no other ship (except a two master which had previously crossed her path).

Look how close you have now pulled down the Californian to the SOS position. The shade circles (visible horizons) of both these ships must intersect, if not virtually overlap to satisfy the 5-miles and 4-7 mile testimony of both ships' witnesses.

Mount Temple must see Californian in this scenario, of Cal being dragged south. She does NOT see any such vessel.

Leave the Californian in your new adjusted position (because she has to get south to be the Titanic’s Mystery Ship, yeah?). Behold! Here comes the Carpathia...

Carpathia arrives and can see a four-masted ship (Mount Temple) and the two-master.

Captain Rostron of sainted memory helpfully says all this in evidence to the British Inquiry:

25551. “We then saw two steamships to the northwards, perhaps seven or eight miles distant. Neither of them was the ‘Californian.’ One of them was a four-masted steamer with one funnel, and the other a two-masted steamer with one funnel. I never saw the ‘Mount Temple’ to identify her. The first time that I saw the ‘Californian’ was at about eight o’clock on the morning of 15th April."

So Californian, being stationary (unlike the Mystery Ship which approached and later departed) **could not** have been to the south without being seen before 6am.

Put her back to the north. Remember that Californian had Polaris (the latitude star for determining your position on the North-South axis), and they had dead reckoning, and they saw a trio of icebergs where those icebergs were, and which were seen and independently verified.

The Californian knew where she herself was. It is unsupported to drag her to the south without convincing explanation. No-one can cite evidence to support the contention.

Bill, you doubt her stated position. But do you see that her testified stop position actually put her head in the noose in 1912? Because they saw rockets to the southEAST, not to the southWEST, where the Inquiry believed Titanic actually was (at the SOS position).

Why would people who were lying about their position wilfully put their heads on the chopping block?

Meanwhile here are a TEN reasons why the Mystery Ship seen by the Titanic is NOT the Californian:

1) Mystery Ship moving. Californian stationary from 10.21 by testimony of all aboard.

2) MS showing a red light from very early on (read Boxhall, see Lowe & ors), Californian displaying a green light at this time to any vessel to the south.

3) Closeness of the MS to the Titanic by the Titanic evidence. How do you get Californian down all those nautical miles to the south?

4) Since Californian was heading virtually due west and stopped at 10.21pm, as an eleven-knot ship she cannot fire up her boilers and get down to the Titanic to be within five miles.

5) Closeness of the Californian's visitor to the Californian. She is only a "small to medium" steamer with "a few indistinct lights," "two or three" - how can this be the Titanic?

6) Rockets reach only halfway up the mastlight of that near ship to the Californian. Titanic's rockets worked perfectly.

7) Californian at the ice barrier, Titanic in open water. Look at the separation on the East-West barrier. The Californian's small to medium visitor is right at the ice as well.

8) Titanic's mystery ship turns and goes away and Boxhall and others see a stern light before the Titanic has sunk. Many witnesses say the MS went away. Californian did not get underway and leave her position until 6am by the evidence of all on board.

9) Carpathia cannot see Californian the next morning. Rostron sees a two-masted steamer and a four-master (Mount Temple) and specifically says: "Neither was the Californian." Dawn from 4am. Californian stood still until 6am.

10) Moore of the Mount Temple says he reaches the SOS position at 4.30, but he can't see any other vessel but the two-masted small steamer later seen by Rostron. Wouldn't he see Californian if she was close by at that time?

I think I could probably come up with another ten reasons (such as the fact that Lee and Fleet couldn’t see another ship — supposedly the stationary Californian! - while they were up in the crow’s nest), but 10-0 is a good point to rest.

No reason at all is offered by the other side as to why the Titanic’s MS must be the Californian. Draw your own conclusions.

Don't worry, I will be exploding that logic bomb under the 15-mile Mystery Ship argument very shortly.

Regards - Senan

 

[Paul Rogers]

OK - I'm going to bow out at this stage because there's very little I can add to this ongoing debate which I haven't already said. I'd like to voice one final thought, however:

"Some time ago I asked for someone — anyone - to advance me a single good reason why the ship seen by the Titanic MUST be the Californian."

How about this for an answer: Because there was NO OTHER ship within the vicinity. Therefore, as Californian was the only ship close to Titanic, she must have been Titanic's mystery ship.

Now Senan, rather than proving Californian wasn't the mystery ship, prove instead that there was at least one other ship present which could inherit that title, by using hard, physical evidence, including the name of this potential candidate.

Methinks you'll have to pursue those stragglers into the forest to prove your case to the unbelievers; or to me, at least.

 

[Senan Molony]

Paul R,

Guess what - you're right! But only in a particular kind of way.

There was NO OTHER ship within the vicinity when the Titanic struck.

Listen to the Titanic lookouts:

Fleet (US Inq): There was no lights at all when we was up in the crow's nest.
This is after we were down and on the (life)boats [preparing lifeboats]; THEN I seen the light. (Emphasis added)
Senator Smith: Where did you see it?
Fleet: On the port bow. The other lookout [the relief lookouts of Hogg and Evans] reported it.

(NOTE: Boxhall later confirmed in a document uncovered by Inger Sheil that the *approach* of a light had been first announced by the second pair of lookouts who relieved Fleet and Lee at 12.23am when the Titanic clocks were put back to midnight)

Continuing:
Senator Smith: How far ahead?
Mr Fleet: It was not ahead; it was on the bow, about four points.
Senator Smith: I am not speaking of that. I wanted to know whether you saw ahead, while
you were on the watch, on the lookout, Sunday night, after the collision occurred or before, any lights of any other ship.
Mr Fleet: No, sir.
Senator Smith: You saw no lights at all?
Fleet: No, sir.

REGINALD LEE, British Inquiry:

2419. Before half-past eleven on that watch had you reported anything at all, do you remember? Lee: "There was nothing to be reported."

Terse. And to the point.

We know that the evidence is that the Californian was stationary and had been since 10.21pm.

She was even kind enough to send this information to all shipping. It got through to the Titanic - but the Titanic famously didn't want to know.

Meanwhile Captain Lord of the Californian stated this:

7118/9. How far do you think from your (masthead) lights would be observable by another ship ?
- I suppose the masthead lights you would see 7 or 8 miles - 8 miles I should think.

7120. Suppose the Titanic was 7 or 8 miles from you between 11 30 and 12 o’clock, would those on her bridge have been able to see your lights? -EASILY.

There is a lot I could tell you Paul about that Mystery Ship, a lot indeed. It is interesting,for one thing, why she was going the *wrong way* (meeting Titanic as Boxhall, Pitman and others say) - when this was a one-way track, leading from East (Europe to West).

I'll let you think about that one.

Finally, the onus of proof should surely have been on the "prosecution" which "convicted" Californian 90 years ago.

There is not a single reason why the Titanic's Mystery Ship MUST be the Californian, and your attempted answer -

"as Californian was the only ship close to Titanic, she must have been"

- is materially deficient. I could name you at least seven ships cited in the evidence and never run to ground, whereas the MAIB Inquiry considered that probably many ships saw the Titanic rockets.

My other opponent must have a dental appointment or something.

I would like the 15-mile and 14-mile proponents, and all these supposedly like-minded researchers to be present when the logic bomb goes off.

Regards - Senan