Not in the least 'mixed-up', Sam.You still seem to be mixing distance by log with distance made good.
From the daily mileage runs we were told, the vessel travelled 1549 miles to noon on the 14th. That leaves about 126 miles to the corner, consistent with a total travel distance from Daunts Rock LV to the corner of 1675 miles. (From Olympic data from 4 voyages commanded by EJ Smith over the same route of travel as Titanic, we find distances from Daunts Rock to the corner of: V1 1677 miles, V2 1674 miles,V3 1676 miles, and V8 1675 miles.) Lowe even said he calculated the ships course from noon to the corner that day. It's no secret that he would have known the ship was 126 miles before the corner at noon. Based on that little chit of paper he handed to Sen. Smith, and Smith's immediate response, what he showed Smith is how he got a speed of 21 knots by simply dividing 126 miles by the 6 hours that he mentioned. He then said it was really a little less than that, 20.95 knots, which would make the distance 125.7 miles if he cared to be more exact.
If we go with your belief that the log measured 122.2 miles at 5:50pm, then there is no way that Boxhall, or anyone else for that matter, could claim that the ship was to the south and west of the corner when she turned at 5:50pm. A run of 126 miles in six hours (or 122.2 in 5h 50m) yielding a speed through the water of 21 knots is inconsistent with an advance of nearly 45 miles in two hours seen at 10pm. In fact, it is inconsistent with Olympic making 21.5 knots carrying 74 revolutions which comes from Wilding. And Titanic was expected to make about 1/4 knot better than her sister ship according to an admission from Ismay. (At 75 revolutions Olympic would have ran about 21.8 knots.) And since the log "indicates the distance travelled through the water, not the distance made good," a run of only 126 miles by log in 6 hours, or 21 knots, is certainly inconsistent with Titanic carrying 75rpm; unless, of course, you want suggest that her revolutions had gone down to about 71 or 72rpm over that six hour period which goes against what was reported.
No problem with Lowe's thought processes either. I don't 'believe' that the log showed 122.2 miles at 5-50 pm; it must have done so if Lowe got a speed of 20.95 knots via a log reading for 6 pm.
There would not be a single officer on the bridge of Titanic who did not have a number in mind as to the distance to go from Noon to The Corner. All of them would have his own idea of what speed the ship would make over that distance.
Boxhall freely admitted that he did not rely on the patent log but used engine rpm. Whereas, Pitman and Lowe both stated that they used the patent log. It's all in the evidence, Sam.
One thing none of them, including Captain Smith would know for sure, was the conditions of wind and weather to be encountered.
You can be sure that Captain Smith would be on the lookout for his ship slowing down. It was and still is, a distinct possibility event in that area. However, his planned clock change of 47 minutes tells us that he hoped that Titanic would cover about 540.5 miles between Noon April 14 and Noon April 15.at the same rpm. That's 5.5 miles less than the previous day. so he was expecting to slow down at some point.
Consider this: if there was a partial clock change of 24 minutes then when Titanic hit the iceberg she would had been running for 12 hours and 4 minutes and covered a distance of 260 miles. At an average speed of 22 knots and under normal conditions; for the next 12 hours and 23 minutes, Titanic would have covered a distance of 272.4 miles, making a total of 532.4 miles...8 miles...less that Captain Smith anticipated and 13.6 miles less than the previous day's run at exactly the same rpm. During Noon 14/15, Titanic was running between 44-33'West and 56-18'West.
Is it shear coincidence that 10 months earlier, in June, 1911 and during her maiden voyage,Titanic's sister ship Olympic lost 17 miles of her expected speed while running between 43-52'West and 54-47'West?
On both occasions both vessels passed along exactly the same route in exactly the same area. Check it out for yourself.
Incidentally, has Titanic survived, and encountered SW'ly weather over the second half of the run after Midnight as did Olympic, she would have most certainly have lost more than 13.6 miles.... perhaps event that extra 3.4 miles?
Since Boxhall and Pitman believed Titanic had turned late, we can safely assume that they believed she had been allowed to run past The Corner. If both these men used the same speed and distance from Noon (I'm suspicious of Pitman) then both would have believed the ship had turned at the same time and consequently, the same distance beyond the planned turning point. They did not.
Pitman waffled-on about a turning time of 5 pm which was ludicrous, in particular if combined which his over-shoot of 10 miles. However therein may lie the cause of the mysterious extra 20 miles for the 8pm DR?
Boxhall obviously thought the ship had over-shot. Otherwise how could Titanic have been 'right on the track' at 7-30pm sights and make good a course up to then of 266 True? If anything, she should have been gradually making a course to the southward of the intended track as the local Magnetic Variation reduced.
If there had been no clock adjustment before impact, Titanic would have been at about 41-56.3'North, 47-56'West at 7-38 pm that evening. If, as claimed, she was right on the track at that moment then she was 42 miles on a bearing of 265 True from The Corner. If, as Boxhall claimed, she made 266 True from 5-50 pm when she turned, then she covered a distance of 38.2 miles at a speed of 21.5 knots...not 22 knots and was at about 41-59'North, 47-05'West.
On the other hand, had the clock been retarded 24 minutes before impact, then Titanic would have been 33 miles x 265 True from The Corner at 7-38 pm. If she had averaged 21.5 knots from when she turned, at 5-50 pm, she would have turned 5.8 miles on a bearing of 065 True from The Corner when she was at 41-59.9#North, 46=51'West.
Think about it! Boxhall 'fitted' his DR 5-50 pm turn position to the 7-30 pm fix position.
Not only did he use the wrong speed and time, but he also used the wrong course when calculating his distress position. here's where the 'fit' comes in:
15671. The effect would be she would have run a little bit further on the old course and then on the new course she is gradually making back to the line?
- That is my impression of the idea which Captain Smith had in altering that course and setting it to that time."
The he states:
"4976. How many degrees did you change ? A: - I can not remember. If I had a chart here I could tell you in a minute. South 84 or 86 west would be the true course we were making after 5.50; south 84 or 86, I am not quite certain which, was the true course."
The man was under pressure and waffling, Sam.