Sorry for the delay in responding, but I had to swim through an ocean of notes to refresh my memory of the events surrounding the forward boats.
Lester, regarding when Lightoller left the forward port boats and went aft...
The best evidence for this comes from Lightoller himself, beginning with his testimony before the British Inquiry. Here are the relevant quotes:
"...if I may give it to you in the order that I was working. I swung out No. 4 with the intention of boarding all the boats from A deck. I lowered No. 4 down to A deck and gave orders for the women and children to do down to A deck to be loaded through the windows."
"But as I was going down the ladder after giving the order someone sung out and said the windows were up. I countermanded the order and told the people to come back to the Boat Deck and instructed two or three, I think they were stewards, to find the handles and lower the windows."
Lightoller estimated it took him 6-7 minutes to swing out and lower No. 4 and another 2-3 minutes to give the order for women and children to go to A deck, then countermand the order. Estimated time of the aborted effort to launch No. 4 is then at 8-10 minutes.
"That left No. 4 hanging at A deck so then I went on to No. 6." he said.
Q. What is the next one that you dealt with?
A. "Well, it was a boat further aft on the port side; it's actual number I really could not say with accuracy. I am under the impression it was No. 8."
But notice what he says next.
"I left the lowering to the Chief. He can along and, of course, being Senior Officer took charge and so I went then, I think, to No. 4 to complete the launching of No. 4."
In other words, Lightoller says he loaded No. 8, but Chief Officer Wilde was left to lower it to the ocean.
Something of great significance to the discussion happened around Boat No. 8. My read is that it happened before the loading of No. 8 started, although it's possible it happened after No. 8 was lowered. The 'when' doesn't really matter compared to the 'what'. Again, we must listen to Mr. Lightoller as he told the story in his book
Titanic and Other Ships, six chapters of which were reprinted in The Story of the Titanic as told by its survivors, edited by Jack Winocour.
Lightoller writes about allowing
Major Peuchen into No. 6 when the boat was halfway down.
"It was about this time that the Chief Officer came out from the starboard side and asked, did I know where the firearms were?"
"I told the Chief Officer, "Yes, I know where they are. Come along and I'll get them for you," and into the First Officer's cabin we went--the Chief, Murdoch, the Captain and myself--where I hauled them out still in all their pristine newness and grease."
When did the distribution of the guns happen? It happened after starboard boats No. 7 and No. 5 had been launched and as No. 3 was being loaded. Lowe was left alone for a time, obviously (in hindsight) during the minutes when Murdoch was getting his gun.
Newly armed, Lightoller either a) went to No. 8 and loaded the lifeboat before handing it over to Wilde to launch or b) went to No. 4. Remember, he had given orders to lower the windows. It's only common sense he would have checked that his orders were being followed. Although he testified to the Senate Inquiry that he "decided it was not worth while lowering them down", he ultimately loaded No. 4 through those very windows.
But don't overlook the importance of the timing. What's the absolute earliest Lightoller could have gone aft (even assuming he never went back to No. 4 to see what was happening)? It's after No. 7 is gone, after No. 5 is gone, and after No. 3 is half-loaded.
This takes us back to the cornerstone of my thesis.
The rear port boats--- No. 12, No. 14 and No. 16--- were loaded in an overlapping fashion. Only when all three were loaded were they lowered one by one. The rear starboard boats were loaded and lowered individually. Even granting Lightoller a head start of 1 1/2 boats, he could not fill the three rear port boats quicker than Murdoch could reach, load and launch No. 9.
*****
Bill...
The McGough hypothesis rests on a very slender reed (or two, to be exact.)
One is the testimony by Boatswain's mate A. Haines regarding Boat No. 9.
Mr. HAINES.
Yes, sir. I was in charge of that boat. That was my own boat, there being two sailors with me.
Senator SMITH.
What were their names?
Mr. HAINES.
One was named McGough , and there was one by the name of Peters. That was my boat's crew.
The other is the observation by John Scarrott at No. 14.
Scarrott: I know the man that was lowering the afterfall, it was McGough.
That's it. The sum total of the evidence. McGough is seen by two men in two different places. We have nothing from McGough himself to guide us. The most obvious answer is that one of the two witnesses is wrong. My guess is Scarrott.
Compare that to the Murdoch linkage. Beesley sees Murdoch leave No. 13 and go to port. On the port side a sailor sees Murdoch, exactly where he would wind up if he crossed the ship from No. 13 and at exactly the right time.
Was he headed for No. 10? And leave boat No. 15 empty? Not a chance. Why did he go to port anyway? Was it because he had run out of women on the starboard side? Plausible.
As for Mr. Archer...
Clench was unlacing a boat when sent to port. Boats had to be unlaced before they were lowered (by Archer).
Scarrot told the British Inquiry he was "the only sailorman" at No. 14, so he took charge.