Lightoller's prediction of ice is most curious because it was apparently not one prediction, but two. On his testimony during the British inquiry has been under discussion so far. At that time he alleged that Sixth Officer Moody predicted they would be up to the ice after 11 p.m. while he claimed to have thought it would be closer to half-past nine. (BOT questions 13486 through 13556.)
However, this was not Lightoller's first story. During the U.S. Senate inquiry he said something quite different. In that version only First Officer Murdoch is mentioned and Moody is nowhere to be found. "When I ended the watch we (Murdoch & Lightoller) roughly judged that we should be getting toward the vicinity of the ice...somewhere about 11 o'clock," Lightoller said. "I remarked on the general condition of the weather, and so on, etc., and then I just mentioned as I had done previously, 'We will be up around the ice somewhere about 11 o'clock, I suppose.'"
Which version was correct? Lightoller was never asked to resolve the matter so it will probably remain a mystery. We can only speculate on why he claimed to have predicted the ship would reach ice at two different times: 9:30 p.m. or after 11 p.m.
The most substantive clue lies in the longitudes quoted by Lightoller for ice reports. He said it was reported between 49º and 51º West. Assuming a 22 knot speed and an 11:40 p.m. time for 50º14' West longitude (both per Boxhall), it is possible to work backwards to approximate what Lightoller might have been thinking.
11:40 p.m. 50º14' West
11:30 p.m. 50º09' West
11:00 p.m. 49º55' West
10:00 p.m. 49º21' West
9:30 p.m. 49º06' West
If Moody used a mid-longitude of the ice reports, he would have estimated the time for when the ship passed 50º West. The table above shows that should have occurred a few minutes past 11 p.m. as Lightoller claimed during his U.S. testimony. However, there is a problem with this. Lightoller indicated he used the nearest longitude to the ship, 49º West, for his prediction. That crossing should have taken place just before 9:30 p.m. which was, conveniently enough, the second officer's second "prediction."
Neither Moody nor Murdoch survived to corroborate either of Lightoller's claimed predictions. Even worse, Moody's death prevented him from confirming his prediction, if it were made at all. Lacking any proof one way or the other, Lightoller's conflicting statements must be considered as suspect when it comes to the truth.
Lightoller's earlier American testimony indicates no special attention was paid to ice between 49º and 50º West longitude. In view of the disaster, this was hardly prudent navigation given the reports of other ships. It raises the spectre of criminal liability on the part of the navigating officers for having ignored ice warnings they had on hand.
Later, in London, Lightoller produced a more prudent story of being on the alert for ice right from the moment the ship crossed the 49th meridian. This story supports the "everything was against us" view of the disaster that Lightoller espoused.
It is possible that the "after 11 p.m." prediction was, as he said in America, Lightoller's work while on the bridge of Titanic. Unfortunately, Moody's alleged 9:30 p.m. prediction makes no such sense. Remember, Moody's must be created using an 11:40 p.m. time for longitude 50º14' West — the incorrect CQD longitude created by Boxhall. No matter how you compute the navigation, that longitude is too far west for the ship's accident which took place closer to 50º00' West.
The only way to make sense out of the alleged Moody prediction is to assume it was really a post-prediction by Lightoller based on the erroneous CQD longitude. By doing so, the second officer gave his performance on the doomed ship's bridge a more prudent appearance for the benefit of the London inquiry. Lightoller made it seem he was looking for ice two hours and more before the accident —- quite a different story from his "somewhere about 11 p.m." U.S. testimony.
-- David G. Brown
