Hello everyone.
I am a huge fan of the titanic ship. I have just registered for membership, and I am looking forward to meeting all of you and discussing inteesting topics surrounding the titanic.
I must warn you that I am an amateur and I have absolutely no knowledge in the field of engeering or mathematics. In other words, I am a mere laymen in this area.
I have a theory that I would like to share with you. I warn you though, this theory is ridiculous and is not based on research. Read at own risk
I introduce a new theory called the RowBoat theory. The theory is based on the premise that boats could have been launched to ‘search out’ the nearest ship for rescue. The theory is applied to the Californian. According to the American and British Inquiries, the Californian must have been closer than 19 ½ miels(31 KM) away from the Titanic. Because the exact distance is not known, we have an unknown variable X. Assume X(distance) can fall between 0KM and 31 KM. That means there is a 1/31 chance or 3% chance that the distance is a certain value. Assume that a life boat is launched at 12 A.M and told to go in a certain directinon Z. Further assume that it contains a competent oarsman who can row at about 3-6 KM an hour. Assuming rowing is continous, 6 KM at worst and 12 KM at best can be reached at best going in a particular direction in 2 hours. If the boat heads in one direction and covers 6 KM in two hours, the probability of reaching the Californian would be (0.25 x 6/31). The probability that the boat is heading in the right direction is 25%. The probability that the boat will be found within 6 Km is 6/31 or 19%. So, the probability that the boat is heading in the right direction AND boat will be found within 6 Km is (25% x 19%) or roughly 5%. Multiply that by four boats, each going a different direction(South, West, East, North) and reaching 6 KM in two hours, the probability of finding the boat would be 6/31 or 19% with four boats! Wouldn’t that be worth the gamble? Now, suppose you have 4 boats with each boat reaching 12 KM in 2 hours, the chance of reaching the californian would be 12/31 x 100%(since all directions North, South, West, East, covered) or 39%! Now let’s resort back to our conservative measure of 19%(we assume four boats and each reaching 6 km in two hours)->let us factor in half an hour(30 minutes) lost due to inefficiency(i.e people getting scared, organization, etc…), each boat would reach 6 x ¾ Km in two hours, 4.5 KM in two hours-> so probability of finding boat would be 4.5/31 or 15%(assuming all four boats are launched and covering north, west, south, and east). I argue that it would have been 15% possible at worst, and nearly 40% at best, averging about 27.5% (1/4) that more lives could have been saved if this operation were adopted.
I am a huge fan of the titanic ship. I have just registered for membership, and I am looking forward to meeting all of you and discussing inteesting topics surrounding the titanic.
I must warn you that I am an amateur and I have absolutely no knowledge in the field of engeering or mathematics. In other words, I am a mere laymen in this area.
I have a theory that I would like to share with you. I warn you though, this theory is ridiculous and is not based on research. Read at own risk
I introduce a new theory called the RowBoat theory. The theory is based on the premise that boats could have been launched to ‘search out’ the nearest ship for rescue. The theory is applied to the Californian. According to the American and British Inquiries, the Californian must have been closer than 19 ½ miels(31 KM) away from the Titanic. Because the exact distance is not known, we have an unknown variable X. Assume X(distance) can fall between 0KM and 31 KM. That means there is a 1/31 chance or 3% chance that the distance is a certain value. Assume that a life boat is launched at 12 A.M and told to go in a certain directinon Z. Further assume that it contains a competent oarsman who can row at about 3-6 KM an hour. Assuming rowing is continous, 6 KM at worst and 12 KM at best can be reached at best going in a particular direction in 2 hours. If the boat heads in one direction and covers 6 KM in two hours, the probability of reaching the Californian would be (0.25 x 6/31). The probability that the boat is heading in the right direction is 25%. The probability that the boat will be found within 6 Km is 6/31 or 19%. So, the probability that the boat is heading in the right direction AND boat will be found within 6 Km is (25% x 19%) or roughly 5%. Multiply that by four boats, each going a different direction(South, West, East, North) and reaching 6 KM in two hours, the probability of finding the boat would be 6/31 or 19% with four boats! Wouldn’t that be worth the gamble? Now, suppose you have 4 boats with each boat reaching 12 KM in 2 hours, the chance of reaching the californian would be 12/31 x 100%(since all directions North, South, West, East, covered) or 39%! Now let’s resort back to our conservative measure of 19%(we assume four boats and each reaching 6 km in two hours)->let us factor in half an hour(30 minutes) lost due to inefficiency(i.e people getting scared, organization, etc…), each boat would reach 6 x ¾ Km in two hours, 4.5 KM in two hours-> so probability of finding boat would be 4.5/31 or 15%(assuming all four boats are launched and covering north, west, south, and east). I argue that it would have been 15% possible at worst, and nearly 40% at best, averging about 27.5% (1/4) that more lives could have been saved if this operation were adopted.
