Hello Tim.
I suspect the evidence you base your NW heading comes from following:
1: QM Olliver.
2. QM Rowe.
3. 3rd officer Lowe.
4. Passenger Major Peuchin.
QM Olliver said the second helm order was given some time after impact and when the berg was "way down stern". Any helm applied then or after that time would be totally ineffectual unless the engines were given a burst ahead
QM Rowe and 5th Officer Lowe did not consult a compass but based their beliefs on the fact that the relative bearing of the light on the port bow was changing. That is not the sole indication that the bow was swinging. It can also mean that the vessel showing the light was moving. Boxhall perfectly described a moving ship.
Californian was stopped.
Major Peuchen said he saw the Northern Lights from his lifeboat as he rowed it directly out from the port side. he was facing the stern of the boat at that time, which means that the stopped
Titanic was heading a little south of due west at that time.
The lookouts and QM Hichens, described an almost uninterrupted flow of events.. 3 bell warning, back up call to the bridge, hard over helm order impact. The known speed of the ship at that time and the first point of contact being less than 50 feet from
Titanic's very fine bow, tells me that the iceberg was only a few hundred feet ahead of the ship when she started her turn. It also tells me that they were almost on top of the iceberg before they saw it and that it was sighted by the lookouts and 1st Officer Murdoch at much the same time.
You remarked earlier that you are coming to believe that
Californian was nearer to 10 miles away from
Titanic. If you or anyone else believes that, then you must reject the evidence of Stone and Gibson indicating that they saw
Carpathia's "comfort" rockets at 3-30 am that morning. Because if they did see them right on the horizon at that time, then
Carpathia was a little over 7 miles from Boxhall and his green flares and Boxhall was close to 22 miles away from the stopped
Californian. The physics cannot be faulted.