The Oil and Gas Markets


Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Oil Falls More Than $2 as Fuel Demand Drops to Three-Year Low
quote:

July 31 Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel, capping the biggest one-month decline since December 2004, as a slowing U.S. economy caused fuel consumption to weaken to the lowest in three years. The economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter, curbing fuel demand. Consumption averaged 20.7 million barrels a day in the past 12 months, the lowest for the period since 2004-2005, according to U.S. Energy Department data.

Oil prices at close:

Crude: $124.08
Brent Light Sweet Crude: $123.98
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Houston Chronicle:

Oil prices end higher on Iran nuclear worries
quote:

NEW YORK – Oil prices ended slightly higher Friday, pushing back above $125 a barrel as the threat of a conflict with Iran rattled energy markets after a week of wild swings.

The gains, however, were limited by lingering beliefs that fuel prices are still too high for cash-strapped Americans who are already cutting back on driving to save money.
More at http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/5919878.html
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Asia Times:

Ukraine clash threatens oil to Europe
quote:

MONTREAL - Corruption and politics in Ukraine threaten to choke off, at least in the near term, the expansion of oil exports from Azerbaijan and eventually Kazakhstan to Europe. This is the significance of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko's efforts in July to halt what she called the "shadowy privatization" of the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline.

The pipeline, from Ukraine's Black Sea coast to near the country's border with Poland, was built originally to transport Caspian oil to refineries in both countries, so as to decrease dependence on energy supplies from Russia. However, a route to get the requisite Caspian oil to Odessa was never found, and the pipeline lay empty until 2004, when it was used to carry fuel in the reverse.
Full story at http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH02Ag01.html

Comment: It all reads like some silly soap opera, but this and other factors come back to bite at the pump.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Oil May Fall on Consumption Drop, OPEC Output, Survey Shows
quote:

Crude oil may fall next week as fuel consumption in the U.S. and other developed countries declines and OPEC increases production.Thirteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 45 percent, said prices will drop through August 8. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will rise and nine forecast little change.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14501&Itemid=79

Also:

LNG: Powering the Future — A $106 billion market 2008-2012
quote:

Cost increases and political issues have hit the LNG industry and will impact near term investment. However, overall capital expenditure (Capex) is set to reach new highs over the 2008-2012 period. A total of $106 billion is projected to be spent on export terminals, LNG carriers and import terminals over the next five years.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14498&Itemid=79
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From PRAVDA:

Oil prices near 125 dollars per barrel as Tropical Storm Edouard approaches Texas
quote:

Oil prices were steady near US$125 a barrel Monday as the market kept an eye on a tropical storm which could affect oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Concerns that a showdown over Iran's nuclear program could threaten crude supplies out of the Middle East also buoyed up prices.
Two page story begins at http://english.pravda.ru/news/business/04-08-2008/105983-oil_prices-0

NYMEX Close:

Light Sweet Crude: $120.84
Crude: $121.01

Guess we'll see if New York catches up with the rest of the world tomorrow.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Oil Falls to $118 as Global Economy Slows, Storm Danger Abates
quote:

Aug. 5 Crude oil fell, closing below $120 a barrel for the first time in three months, amid signs demand may be curtailed by slowdowns in the U.S. and European economies. Gasoline also fell to the lowest since May. Oil dropped as much as 2.8 percent as the services sectors in the U.S. and U.K. contracted in July, and European retail sales declined by the most in at least 13 years in June. Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall today on the Texas coast. It idled 6 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil output as of this morning ``Demand numbers have been weak here for quite a period of time,'' said Roger Read, an analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. in Houston. Today's numbers ``may confirm expectations, but they're not a shock to the system.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14741&Itemid=79

NYMEX prices at 5:00pm:

Crude: $118.62
Light Sweet Crude: $117.35

Comment: Are the chickens really coming home to roost here? I'm not counting on the trend lasting but the impact on the world economy of excessive prices can't be lost in the world's exchanges.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Charting the Course Downstream
quote:

Vela International Marine Ltd.’s supertanker Polaris Star rides high in the water as it moves through the gateway of the Arabian Gulf on its way to Ras Tanura. Although the tanks of the very large crude carrier (VLCC) are empty and the waters familiar, the Polaris Star is on a voyage of discovery as Saudi Aramco executives meet onboard to set a new course for Refining, Marketing International (RM&I).
The business line, which handles the distribution of Saudi Aramco hydrocarbon products, has many tried and true processes to deliver energy to both the world and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the forms required.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14833&Itemid=31

NYMEX Close:

Crude: $118.81
Light Sweet Crude: $117.00
Comment: Looks like trading was flat today.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From Dawn:

Oil prices race towards $120
quote:

LONDON, Aug 7: World oil prices rebounded towards $120 on Thursday after news pipeline carrying crude from Central Asia to the West would remain shut for about 15 days after a recent explosion.

New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery jumped $1.29 to $119.87 a barrel.

Brent North Sea crude for September rallied $1.03 to $118.03 per barrel.
Full story at http://www.dawn.com/2008/08/08/ebr6.htm
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Oil Falls as Stronger U.S. Dollar Cuts Demand for Commodities
quote:

Aug. 8 Crude oil fell below $115 a barrel for the first time since May as the dollar gained the most since 2001 against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. Oil dipped to $114.62 a barrel as prices for commodities including metals and crops fell amid the dollar's gain. Crude has declined more than $32 from its July record on speculation that slower global economic growth will cut demand.
``Crude was a safe haven at a time of declining stocks and a declining dollar, and now the dollar is going back up, so people are less interested in a safe haven,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15080&Itemid=79

Prices at close of business today:

Crude: $115.20
Brent Light Sweet Crude: $113.33
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From Yahoo News:

Oil prices turn bearish, but the bulls may yet return
quote:

NEW YORK (AFP) - In less than a month crude oil, which some saw hitting 200 dollars a barrel by year-end, has plunged 32 dollars but a rebound could happen, for example, over the Iranian nuclear crisis, analysts say.
For the rest, see http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080809/ts_afp/oilpricemarkets

Comment: The writer has a point. When the sabres are being rattled, investors get scared. When investors get scared, prices tend to go up.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Mail OnLine:

The Pipeline War: Russian bear goes for West's jugular
quote:

The war in Georgia escalated dangerously last night after Russian jets reportedly bombed a vital pipeline that supplies oil to the West.

After a day of heightening international tensions, Georgian leaders claimed that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports oil from the Caspian Sea to Turkey, had been attacked. But it is thought the bombs missed their target.


Their claims came after Russian jets struck deep into the territory of its tiny neighbour, killing civilians and ‘completely devastating’ the strategic Black Sea port of Poti, a staging post for oil and other energy supplies.
More at http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1043185/The-Pipeline-War-Russian-bear-goes-Wests-jugular.html

Warning: Some of the photos in this story are quite graphic so if you happen to be a bit sensetive, don't click on the link.

Comment: The issue in the context of this discussion is how the markets will react to this tomorrow. I doubt that prices will go down because of this. Speculators get antsy when bullets and bombs start flying. Sometimes for good reason.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Oil Heads for Weekly Decline as Demand Slows, Dollar Gains
quote:

Crude oil headed for its fourth decline in five weeks as demand fell and the dollar gained, reducing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. Fuel consumption in the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer, dropped 2.6 percent in the four weeks to Aug. 1 from a year ago, according to Energy Department data. New York crude futures have fallen 19 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 as an economic slowdown made motorists drive less. The dollar is set for its fourth weekly gain against the euro.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15137&Itemid=31

and

Oil vs. the Market: Major Changes Expected This Month
quote:

The market continues to react to declines in oil prices, and it will almost surely continue to do that until such time as OIL seems to be a non-issue again. This will only happen when oil dips below a level perceived by the market as 'economically neutral.' That level, in my opinion, is $100.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15118&Itemid=79

Comment: Tomorrow, the markets decide who's right and some of the would be economic Cassandras get to explain why they're wrong.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Commodities-Oil, gold rebound after sell-off; palm, rubber fall
quote:

Oil rebounded more than $1 on Monday on supply disruption fears and gold recovered from three-month lows, erasing part of the losses triggered in the previous session by a surge in the value of the U.S. dollar. Shanghai copper took a cue from the London Metal Exchange fall on Friday and eased nearly 2 percent, while soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade fell on expectations of a better crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15227&Itemid=79

NYMEX close for crude: $114.62
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Oil Falls as Traders Bet the Dollar Will Climb Against the Euro
quote:

Aug. 12 Crude oil fell to a 14-week low on speculation that the dollar will strengthen against the euro, weakening the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. "The oil market is still catching up with the rise of the dollar over the last few days,'' said Peter Beutel, president of New Canaan, Connecticut-based Cameron Hanover Inc.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15388&Itemid=79

Todays closing prices:

Brent Light Sweet Crude: $111.15 on the London ICE exchange.

Crude: $113.10

Comment: Looks like the bears are betting smart this week.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Russia-Georgia conflict raises worries over oil and gas pipelines
quote:

Several important lines pass through Georgia, and for Europeans and others, the routes represent a crucial counterbalance to Russia's control of energy resources. Russia's invasion of neighboring Georgia has raised doubts about the security of oil and gas pipelines that cross through the former Soviet republic and the wisdom of further investment in the transport lines. The foray also put an emphatic stamp on Russia's growing influence over the region's natural resources and, by proxy, over Europe.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15452&Itemid=79

NYMEX Crude at close today: $116.50
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The International Herald Tribune:

Rise in oil price weighs on Wall Street
quote:

NEW YORK: Oil prices rose on Wednesday on data showing an unexpected drop in U.S. fuel inventories, further undermining equity markets already reeling from signs of a slowing economy and persistent credit concerns.

The U.S. dollar edged lower against the euro after crude's $3 a barrel spike rekindled worries about the U.S. economic outlook. But the dollar rose against the yen amid growing fears that high energy prices could further hurt the Japanese economy.
More at http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/13/business/13stoxclose.php

Comment: Brent Light Sweet Crude also closed up at $113.47
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Hellenic Shipping News:

Russian diesel will flow freely
quote:

All those people in Western Europe who fill up on diesel need have no fears about shortages on the forecourts for the time being. Because Russia plans to substantially increase its exports of diesel oil via the port of Primorsk. Rotterdam is the main transit port for crude oil and products from Primorsk, and will be further expanding the relevant handling and storage capacity.
More at http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=15569&Itemid=79

NYMEX Close

Crude: $114.75
Brent Light Sweet Crude: $112.64
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Times of India:

World oil prices fall further in Asian trade
quote:

SINGAPORE: World oil prices fell further in Asian trade Friday as anxiety about energy demand continued to keep investors edgy, dealers said.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for September delivery, was off 1.20 dollars to 113.81 dollars a barrel from its close of 115.01 at the end of floor trading in the United States on Thursday.

Brent North Sea crude for October delivery fell 90 cents to 112.78. The September contract expired Thursday at 112.64.
More at
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Indicators/World_oil_prices_fall_further_in_Asian_trade/articleshow/3367786.cms

NYMEX spot prices at time of post:

Crude: $113.42
Brent Light Sweet Crude: $112.33
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From Reuters:

Dow, S&P hold modest gains as oil prices fall
quote:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks mostly edged higher on Friday, as a drop in the price of oil added to hopes of a revival in consumer spending, boosting the outlook for economic and profit growth.

The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 held modest gains in early afternoon trading, while the Nasdaq dipped.

A rally in the U.S. dollar on fears about slowdowns in non-U.S. economies pushed the price of oil down more than $3. Oil's decline spurred hopes that consumers will go shopping with the money they save at the pump and that view helped lift retailers' shares.
Two page story begins at http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=2008-08-15T180037Z_01_LC599874_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-STOCKS.xml&WTmodLoc =NewsHome-C3-hotStocksNews-2

Bloomberg Close:

Crude: $113.77
Brent Light Sweet Spot: $110.72

Comment: Looks like overall, the bears have had the last laugh this week. It would be nice in the instance if they can keep on laughing. At the pump, we're not.
 
Dec 2, 2000
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From The Australian:

Oil prices drop as OPEC cuts forecastWORLD crude oil prices slid again yesterday as the OPEC crude producers' cartel lowered its forecast for oil demand growth, citing the weak global economy.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for September delivery, closed down $US1.24 at $US113.77 a barrel.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for October delivery dropped $US1.13 to settle at $US112.55 a barrel. The September contract had expired at $US112.64 on Thursday.}Full story at http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24189996-12377,00.html

Related stories.

From The Manila Times:

Oil prices fall on shrinking demand
Story at http://www.manilatimes.net/national/2008/aug/16/yehey/business/20080816bus12.html

And from The Houston Chronicle:

Russia-Georgia clash is not yet affecting oil prices
Story at http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5947012.html

Comment: Beginning Monday, we get to see where the trends go.
 

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