Titanic Changing Course

I'm pleased to announce that a new article by ET member Dave Brown entitled, "Titanic: Changing Course," is now available on the Great Lakes Titanic Society (GLTS) web site.

In this new article Dave reexamines the navigation of Titanic in her final hours using historical data and standard dead reckoning techniques. He suggests that improper navigational analysis by the British Board of Trade has misled historians for decades and influenced modern authors to repeat the mistakes and deceptions of the Mersey report. As always, Dave is very thorough in his analysis and reaches conclusions that are both fascinating and controversial.

Dave's new work is available as a pdf file and can be accessed from the GLTS web site's articles page at:

http://www.glts.org/articles/

Many thanks to Dave for contributing this significant work to our web site!

Denise Hunyadi and John Hays
http:/www.glts.org/
 
I'm doing OK, Mike! Thanks for asking. I hope you are, too. I realize I've taken a bit of a break from ET over the holidays, but don't worry--even if you don't see me here I'm really not that far away.

I know you'll enjoy reading Dave's new paper on this important subject. John and I are very much looking forward to the discussions it will undoubtedly generate on ET.

And who knows? Perhaps we'll be able to talk about it face to face at a future technical event--wherever and whenever that may be!

Denise
 
>>And who knows? Perhaps we'll be able to talk about it face to face at a future technical event--wherever and whenever that may be! <<

This year I hope. If not, we still have the boards. I don't know if I'll be able to offer much in such a discussion since Dave Brown and Sam Halpern are much better at the number crunching then I am. Still, it's an opportunity to learn something new and that's always a good thing.
 
Maybe just a small point, but when Leslie Harrison was obtaining informtion for his two petitions, he was in touch with Rowe via an intermediary contact.

The first letter was on 5th March 1963, and consisted of a long series of questions and answers. Rowe estimated the time of the first boat to leave the boat deck as being 1.00am, but he did not think of, or about [looking] at a watch.

The second was dated May 18th, 1963, and Rowe told the contact (Mr.Powell) "No, [Rowe] definitely did not adjust his watch."

The third contact was on June 11th 63, and Rowe said that "It was perhaps 12.30 that they [ie Boxhall] were firing the rockets whilst he was still on the after poop, and when he took the other rockets along they used some of those as well."
 
A new article by Sam Halpern and Mark Chirnside is now available on the Great Lakes Titanic Society website. Their new work, entitled "Titanic: Changing the Reality," is a hard hitting response to fellow ET member Dave Brown's recently published paper, "Titanic: Changing Course." In this new work, Sam and Mark take a detailed look at what they call the nine "navigationally significant" points in Dave's paper and spell out their differences with him. They also examine differences of opinion concerning current, dead reckoning, time and navigation on the night of the accident. Detailed in its content and heavily footnoted, this new work spells out--on no uncertain terms--the significant differences between these authors when it comes to where Titanic met her iceberg.

Both papers can be found at:

http://www.glts.org/articles/

Denise
 
I'll be looking forward to reading that Denise. Thanks for the heads up.

Whatever one thinks of the various positions taken by the different authors, it's well to remember that there is as much ambiguity as there is clearity in the Titanic story and plenty of room for debate. In other words, one or the other could be right or something could come to light which has both sides going right back to the drawing board to revise their respective theories.
 
I have read the piece by Sam and Mark, and I am frankly embarrassed for them.

As a professional writer, I'm used to harsh criticism that is usually more substantial. However, I am also deeply hurt by the childish secrecy that surrounded this barbed attack on me personally and my research. When I wrote my paper, I corresponded with Sam throughout. Not being given the same courtesy in return says something about the honor of the two authors that I don't really want to discuss.

I stand 100% behind everything that I have said in my paper. What I presented is correct dead reckoning based upon...and only upon...evidence from Titanic. I have used only the generally accepted practices of navigators for dead reckoning and current vector problems. If the two authors don't like the truth, then they are free to continue on their course.

All I ask is that people read my paper and understand that I do not ever claim to know where Titanic was, just where the dead reckoning says it should have been. Based upon this and the data from the ship's own radio transmissions, I have shown that Titanic did make a one point (11 degree) course alteration that night. Captain Smith did not steam blindly to oblivion. Even Boxhall admitted the captain was on the bridge plotting. Now we can see the efforts of Smith's work.

In writing my paper I had considered loops and whorls in currents as a cause of Titanic's flotsam gaining westing. At one point I even considered circular eddies such as form on the edges of the Gulf Stream. Denise can verify this.

Sometimes it helps to have real-world experience. I removed current loops and eddies for good reason. The type of debris on the surface was light -- cork, barber poles, broken wood. It would have been moved more by wind than by the currents of the area. This is obvious on any river when a wind comes up cross-current. Light debris moves in the thin layer of water pushed by the wind; while logs and other heavier debris cross the lighter stuff at an angle as it continues to move with the current.

The physical evidence on the bottom of shows a current that night with an almost a due south set. So, it seemed to me that a whorl in the current was neither the best or most logical explanation of the debris movement. But, wind as reported by people who were on the scene did explain it.

(Private to the authors: the movement of the debris cannot be taken backwards through the "fix" of the boiler field in dead reckoning. Nothing that happens after a fix affects what went before. Remember, the arrow of time flies only one way.)

My suggestion of a "wave" along the Polar Front is not wild-eyed speculation as some jealous authors would have you believe. The weather pattern as recorded by people on the scene matches the Bjerknes "theory of storms" which is the basis of all modern meteorology. The direction of the wind before and after the calm is particularly telling, as is the drop in temperature.

The bottom line of the rebuttal paper is personal anger. The authors are angry that I of all people have found several ways, including proper navigation, to show that the time of the accident was not 11 hours and 40 minutes after noon. Rather, it was 12 hours and 4 minutes.

Bringing the proper time duration into the picture does more than just correct an impossible set to the current that night. It also puts into question all the conclusions based on the wrong (too short) dead reckoning of the accident. And, for at least one of the writers that means reworking years of research.

I do not plan to back down from reality just because it is inconvenient to what someone else has published in the past. Repetition of mistakes, especially by shouting, does not correct them.

Regretfully, the rebuttal paper contains material that I believe was designed and intended to harm my reputation and to interfere with my ability to earn a living; and, as such, is actionable. For this reason, I am requesting that Denise remove it from her web site. This is not something I take lightly, but the paper has gone beyond legitimate heated intellectual discourse, which I would welcome if they choose to do so with less malice. I have no choice when it comes to someone doing me deliberate harm.

-- David G. Brown
 
I am disappointed, but not surprised, by your hostile response David. I have come to expect nothing less from you.

quote:

I am also deeply hurt by the childish secrecy that surrounded this barbed attack on me personally and my research. When I wrote my paper, I corresponded with Sam throughout. Not being given the same courtesy in return says something about the honor of the two authors that I don't really want to discuss

If you want to discuss being ‘deeply hurt,’ David, then you should start by apologising for your past behaviour. Try putting yourself in my shoes. I felt rather hurt and disappointed when you made some of your comments about me over the past few years. You have a history of lying about me personally, going back to 2006. You’ve been prepared to take my work whenever you felt it supported a particular premise of yours, but accuse me of dishonesty when I have contradicted you. I suspect that was because you were unable to discredit my work by means of evidence and scholarly debate. I wrote to you to ask you to explain your statements, at the time, and you did not even have the decency to respond.

You can manipulate matters all you like, David. However, I think anyone reading this thread deserves the full story rather than your distorted version of it. It is entirely true that you corresponded with Sam before you published your paper. What you fail to mention is that Sam pointed out inaccuracies and demonstrable falsehoods in your work to you, and yet you did not make any amendments before publishing your paper. You published them as fact even though they were not true. It is also true that you criticised both of us and yet you did not see fit to notify or discuss it with me.

quote:

I stand 100% behind everything that I have said in my paper.

Whether you stand by it is ultimately of no concern to me. Sam and I do not believe you are able to assess this matter in an objective, dispassionate way.

quote:

The bottom line of the rebuttal paper is personal anger. The authors are angry that I of all people have found several ways, including proper navigation, to show that the time of the accident was not 11 hours and 40 minutes after noon. Rather, it was 12 hours and 4 minutes.

I had to laugh when I read that. It’s vintage Brown stuff. The fact is that Sam and I do not agree with your theory. You’re reduced to lying about us by claiming we secretly agree with it and do not want to admit it. You should not judge us by your own standards, David.

As for anger, the only anger I feel towards you is that you have lied about me. I don’t waste my time getting angry about you, David — you are not worth it.

quote:

It also puts into question all the conclusions based on the wrong (too short) dead reckoning of the accident. And, for at least one of the writers that means reworking years of research.

Another implicit lie from you, David — implying that one of us feels the way we do because we do not want to revise our past work. Nonsense. Sam and I both work on the basis of continuous improvement. In fact, the whole premise of our original article about Maiden Voyage Mysteries was to revise the historical record and show that Olympic averaged 21.43 knots on her maiden voyage rather than the incorrect 21.17 knots which has been repeated for over ninety years.

quote:

Repetition of mistakes, especially by shouting, does not correct them.

I agree, and that’s why I feel it is such a shame that you have taken that course.

quote:

Regretfully, the rebuttal paper contains material that I believe was designed and intended to harm my reputation and to interfere with my ability to earn a living; and, as such, is actionable. For this reason, I am requesting that Denise remove it from her web site. This is not something I take lightly, but the paper has gone beyond legitimate heated intellectual discourse, which I would welcome if they choose to do so with less malice. I have no choice when it comes to someone doing me deliberate harm.

You have a habit of mentioning legal action, or the word ‘libel,’ David. You seem more interested in threatening Sam and I and attempting to suppress our work rather than engaging in a reasoned debate. Hardly surprising, of course, for if we had such a debate I don’t think your work would come out of it very well. Indeed, Sam and I have discussed your theory with many professionals, as well as well known researchers who have earned the respect of their peers. As yet, we have not found a single person who agrees with your theory. (Then again, even if you did attempt to take action I can’t see it working, because Sam and I believe everything we have written is true.) Your threats are rather like those of a belligerent thug who tries to intimidate other people, or who punches a man and then is surprised when that man strikes back in self defence.

Now, if you want to discuss going beyond ‘legitimate heated intellectual discourse,’ we can discuss some of the charges you made in your paper, can't we?

Regards,

Mark.​
 
David. For many years you and I have been in close communications on many issues. Many times we have not agreed on how we see things, and some of those difference have been shared on this forum, other kept in private. Difference of opinion or interpretation does not bother me. In fact, I welcome points of view that differ from my own, for that makes the discussions that more interesting. But speaking for myself with regard to this particular instance, what you did here in the article that you wrote was far more than presenting an independent assessment of issues or putting forth a theory or two. What you did was to assert that others are guilty of intellectual fraud if they don't see things your way. In your paper you accused Mark Chirnside and I of using incorrect methods and not properly and fully examining all the evidence in the record. Yet, when I pointed out to you in private correspondence as far back as July 2007 that there is some basic evidence that runs counter to your theories, you chose to dismiss or ignore it rather than address it directly. When you informed me of your intent to publish your recent article in late December, you told me: "If I have convinced you with this report...and if you wish to make changes to your work prior to this being published...I'll hold off." This was not much different from your accusation in July when you wrote me and accused me of: "disregarding hard evidence in favor of a fluffy attempt at maintaining a mythical track line simply because its easier than going back over all of your work and re-aligning it with reality."

Who's reality are we talking about here Dave? As I wrote you before your article was put up on the GLTS site, "You said you believe that your view of reality must also be the same reality as those navigating the Titanic on April 14, 1912. You said, 'all else is meaningless,' so why should I bother to continue with this? After all, you will only dismiss anything I point out to you that is at variance to your beliefs." And in fact, that is exactly what you did. After several back and forth emails, you went ahead and put up your article without change.

But if all you did was publish an article that presented your views or interpretation of evidence, it would not have bothered me or Mark. I personally wouldn't care much. However, when you essentially accuse Mark and I and others of intellectual fraud, and made uncalled-for and unprofessional accusations and misstatements about our work and others in a published work, then it does become a concern which we felt compelled to address.

I am not going to address all the points Mark and I made in our article in this short post. The reader can access that paper as well as yours on the link that Denise provided above. However, I am sorry that your feel that our article was designed with the intent to harm your reputation or to interfere with your ability to earn a living. If any harm is done to your reputation, it is by your own hand in what you wrote. As I wrote to you in private before your article was published, "Like anything else, it will be you who will have to answer the hard questions that will follow. You have a theory that does not stand up under careful study and analysis. You have to explain away more than what you cite for support. There is something very wrong with that."
 
In originally posting Dave Brown's article, "Titanic: Changing Course," we had hoped that his reinterpretation of the evidentiary record would generate a lively exchange of ideas on ET. We also felt that given the nature of Dave's presentation, Sam Halpern and Mark Chirnside should be given the opportunity to offer their rebuttal to Dave's theories, allowing the readers to fully examine both sides of the issue and come to their own conclusions. Unfortunately, this appears to be one of those areas of Titanic research where it is impossible to keep strong differences of opinion from devolving into personal attacks. Therefore, both articles have been removed from the GLTS web site.

We are extremely disappointed that these issues will not be given the full and open discussion we believe they deserve.

Denise Hunyadi & John Hays
http://www.glts.org/
 
James, I agree with you. It is too bad that both articles were taken down, for it does not allow others to read what was written in both and form their own conclusions.

Just as Dave Brown wrote in his paper that it was not the intention of his work to embarrass any of the authors of other modern papers, Mark and I tried to make it clear that the arguments we presented in our paper should not be construed as personal criticism. It certainly was not designed to cause harm to anyone's reputation or ability to earn a living. It was designed to address a number of unsubstantiated statements, misstatements of fact, false arguments, and what was to us some disturbing accusations about the work we had done that appeared in Mr. Brown's article. We stated and backed up all the evidence we presented (with something like 53 footnoted references) for the benefit of the readers, and even took the responsibility for having our paper reviewed and criticized by three independent and highly respected Titanic researchers and authors before submitting it to Denise.

It is a shame that they were taken off the GLTS website so readers will not have easy access to these articles to judge for themselves.
 
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