I’ve seen a few wonderfully written articles as well as various claims written by historians that go back and forth on what would have happened if the Titanic carried enough lifeboats for the 2208 people she was carrying during her maiden voyage, however the general consensus is mixed.
Historians such as Charles Haas, the late Jack Eaton and I believe Park Stephenson too (correct me if I am wrong on the later however) offer a pessimistic view that more lifeboats would have gotten into the way into the evacuation.
Historians such as Dr. Paul Lee and
George Behe show more optimistic views on that if the deck crew was properly trained with a max capacity of lifeboats on deck they could clear 16 lifeboats on the second class promenade in 1 hour and 15 minutes, saving 780 people if filled to the max capacity.
My views on the matter are somewhat in-between of this debate as I believe factors would come into play that were either nonexistent on the Titanic or actions that would depend on orders given out as well if certain situations would come to play or not if there were lifeboats for everyone on-board. This includes:
*1 The rousing of the passengers in all three classes. Both in terms of speed, how effective it’s being done as well as offering directions. Passengers on the Titanic, unlike on ships after the disaster, didn’t had any emergency stations assigned and since there was no passenger lifeboat drill (the one often cited of being canceled was only for crewmembers) directions would have been important. As shown with the occupants of lifeboat number 4 some directions were quite vague that fateful night.
*2 The behavior and willingness of the passengers to board a lifeboat in the middle of the North Atlantic on a cold night instead of staying on a safe, warm, well lit vessel were even the band is still playing cheerful tunes. Especially with the first lifeboats in first class there seemed to be a lot of indifference in to board a lifeboat at the early stages of the evacuation.
*3 The training of the deck crew. Practice makes perfect after all, on the Titanic the order to uncover the lifeboats was given shortly before midnight, with chief officer Wilde ordering quatermaster Olliver to tell boatswain Nichols to start uncovering the lifeboats with the order to swing them out given slightly over 15 minutes later when captain Smith returned from his second damage inspection (based on some evidence it isn’t out of the question that he already knew the chance was likely the ship wouldn’t survive the night, he only didn’t knew for how long). Imagine 32, 48 or 64 lifeboats being prepared in the alternative timeline with a deck crew of 66 men, 36 of them being seamen (34 able bodied, 2 ordinary seamen).
*4 How the officers would have filled the lifeboats. Most of Titanic’s lifeboats were lowered without filling them to their certificated maximum capacity, however there are of-course reasons behind this. From orders to fill the lifeboats from gangway doors to the fear that if a lifeboat is filled to their maximum capacity that the Welin Quadrant davits might failed them during the lowering, potentially killing all occupants (three of the four surviving officers, these being
Lightoller, Pitman and Lowe, expressed that the lowering capacity wasn’t the same as the certificated floating capacity). As Bob wrote in an excellent article their fears weren’t misplaced, and in March 1913 some of the arms of a Welin quadrant davit did fail on the
Olympic under Board Of Trade supervision (by the same surveyor who oversaw the construction of the Titanic, Francis Charruters). With this in mind I believe that filled the lifeboats to their proper capacity in this scenario would be unlikely.
*5 The timing when the rules and regulations, and with that the training of the deck crew to work with the number of lifeboat, would be implemented on the
Olympic class liners and other White Star Liners as well as if this training by the Board Of Trade is provided on all ships on which the deck crew previously server.
I believe these five points would be the key factor in terms of an evacuation in that scenario would be successful or not. In these scenarios we always go out on the positive pieces of a puzzle to fall into place, however unfortunately there are never ideal situations in emergencies, let alone disaster. With how it went that fateful night I am a bit more pessimistic of that everyone could be saved or not.
The 1496 lives lost on that fateful night played a role to assure nearly all the points above were implemented world wide, and saved thousands of lives.
