Jim, I'd like to take you up a bit more on that statement and fit it into my hypothetical scenario where everyone - passengers and crew alike - took the safety precautions seriously, co-operated and acted very promptly. As my proviso said, there were 48 lifeboats in all, all passengers irrespective of their nationality had been thoroughly briefed what to do and where to go in case of an evacuation order and the crew were very well trained about their individual tasks and stations.

That would mean that there would be 16 launching davits for 16 lifeboats at a time and in the boat there were 16 sets of crew each of whom knew his boat station and associated task. Likewise, every passenger would know which lifeboat station they were allocated and where it was in relation to their cabins. Let us assume that throughout the ship there were "You are here" type markers - after all, there is nothing technical about those - and mustering crew were further tasked to assist passengers and avoid confusion. Also, other crew are trained in getting the next boat ready for davit fitting as soon as one starts to load.

OK. Here it goes.

*For the sake of ease, let us forget about disagreements about timeframes*.

- The
* Titanic* collides with the iceberg at 11:40 hours
- After damage assessment, Captain Smith gives the evacuation order at 00:15 hours, thus starting the evacuation process.
- By 00:30 all crew are in their designated places and passengers being herded to their lifeboat stations and loaded into boats. Families kept together as per arrangement.
- The
**first of the first set** of 16 boats are launched starting at 00:40 hours; allowing for slight local differences and **extending your 20 minutes to 30**, by 01:10 hours all 16 boats in the first set are launched and the second set is ready for loading.
- Repeating the same process, 16 further boats are launched and away by 01:40 hours.
- Even with an average of 50 people in each boat, that would be over 1500 people safe in lifeboats by 01:40 hours. Since everything was done by protocol, most of them are passengers.
- Thus, majority of the people now left on boat are crew and so work proceeds faster and by 02:05 hours 16 more boats are launched.
- The remaining handful of crew now quickly go to Emergency Boats #1 and #2 as arranged and both are successfully launched by 02:15 hours.

So, is that a plausible scenario?

Hello Arun. Here's how I see it.

48 boats = 16 pers side. Each boat was 30 feet long so

*Titanic's* boat deck being the length it was; the boats would have to be double stowed and each set of 2 use the same set of davits. This means that the area for use of passengers waiting to embark would be greatly reduced. To get effect, smooth embarkation, you would need to have enough space adjacent to each boat to allow lowering crews and 520 passengers each side. 520 passengers to assemble at boat stations each side. These must be kept clear of and inboard of the inboard boats on each side. These inboard boats would require to have a means of skidding them out and under the davits.

Boats cleared. Covers off, gripes released, falls removed and coiled ready for use. Boats wound out over the ship's side. Men at each end lower to embarkation deck using individual falls surged round crusafix bollard. Total time each boat = 20 minutes.

However, even the best crews meet problems so we cannot say that 8 boats would be ready for loading at the same time... allow a total time of

**30 minutes.**
Now load each boat with 65 men women and children...15 minutes a boat. Again , people are not robots so

**allow 30 mintes** to have all boats loaded and ready to go. Lower away together!

Being loaded to full capacity from a height of say 70 feet would take at least 5 minutes per boat.

**Allow 10 for safety.**
When the boats are a float, the patent rrales levers disconnect the falls at each end...

**allow 5 minute**s for problems. Now the boats have to be rowed away clear of the ship's side. Not an easy task with the equiment of 1912 an in a crowded boat.

**Allow 10 minutes**. During that time, the falls would need to be recovered. These were 4 part sheaves, meaning something like 9 x 70 = 630 feet of 4 inch rope released from each end of each boat needed to be overhaulled back to the boat deck. Give an

** extra 5 **minute sover and above boats rowing clear. Once more the winding out, lowering and loading of the second bank of boats would take place. So far we have a total of 30 + 30 + 10 + 5 + 10 +5 = 90 minutes.

The second bank of boats could have been made ready while the first bank were lowering therefore we can deduct 30 minutes form the previous total. We now arrive at a total of 90 +60 = 150 minutes or 2 hours 30 minutes in which we might embark a total of 2080 people in full sized lifeboats. While these were being used, the remainder of the passengers could have been embarked in the rescue boats 1 and 2 and the four collapsible boats might have saved an additional 268 souls making a total saved of 2348 people. Since there were 2, 229 people on board, theoretically, all could have been saved if the foregoing were practical. However ther is a but... a big BUT. The foregoing is based on there being enough room for 520 people each side of the boatdeck as well as everyone cooperating like zombies. The ship would need to have remained upright and on an even keel for at least 3 hours from the moment of impact and all items of equipment performing as planned. I cannot see any of that taking place. Not only that, but history, right up until the

*Costa Concordia *event tells us that such a thing just never happens